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Jul 24, 2026
The 2026 midterm election cycle is on pace to become the most expensive non-presidential election in U.S. history. That has real consequences for any business running digital advertising this fall, political or not. Total political ad spending is projected to reach $10.8 billion, more than 20% higher than the 2022 midterms and closing in on 2024 presidential-cycle totals. For a marketing agency in West Palm Beach, that means preparing clients now for a media landscape that's about to get a lot more crowded and a lot more expensive.
Whether an agency is directly running campaigns for political clients or simply trying to protect commercial advertisers from the fallout, understanding what's driving this surge (and where the risks and opportunities sit) is essential heading into the fall. That's especially true here in South Florida, where competitive statewide races and a dense media market can amplify the squeeze for local businesses trying to reach the same audiences.
Congressional and gubernatorial races are absorbing the bulk of this cycle's spending, with Senate races alone projected to top $2.8 billion. Without a presidential race to anchor the ticket, that money is concentrated in a smaller number of highly competitive states and media markets, driving up costs disproportionately in those regions.
For agencies managing non-political clients—dental practices, home services companies, franchises, and other small to mid-sized businesses alike—this creates a real inventory squeeze from September through early November. CPMs climb, preferred ad slots disappear, and campaigns that don't plan ahead get stuck paying premium rates for whatever's left. A dental practice running Facebook Ads to fill its patient pipeline, or a home services company relying on Google Ads for emergency service calls, can see cost-per-lead climb sharply during these months if their media plan hasn't accounted for the seasonal pressure.
Programmatic guarantees and direct buys secured early, before political spending accelerates. Locking in rates now protects budgets before the fall squeeze takes hold. Agencies that wait until September are negotiating against a shrinking pool of inventory and political buyers with far bigger budgets.
Private marketplace (PMP) deals give commercial advertisers priority access to inventory that would otherwise get absorbed by political spending. This is particularly valuable for clients in competitive media markets, where open-auction placements are the first to disappear once political ad dollars start flowing.
Media plans built with a contingency line for October rate spikes hold up far better than plans built around static, year-round CPM assumptions.
Key campaigns pulled forward into the summer months, ahead of the political spending surge, can secure better rates and more consistent delivery for clients, provided they have flexibility in their launch timing.
A Google Ads strategy that accounts for seasonal rate volatility now will save clients from scrambling or overpaying later in the cycle.
Broadcast television still commands the largest overall share of political ad spend. However, connected TV (CTV) is the fastest-growing channel this cycle, with spending projected to top $2.5 billion. Political buyers are leaning heavily on smart TV data to reach cord-cutters who've moved away from traditional broadcasts. Streaming audio and podcast advertising are also seeing record adoption for regional, hyper-targeted campaigns that reach voters during screen-free hours.
This shift matters even for brands with no political involvement. As political dollars flood CTV and audio inventory, commercial advertisers may find their usual channels more competitive and costly during peak election months, particularly in the weeks leading up to Election Day, when spending concentrates most heavily.
Excess fourth-quarter budget redirected toward retail media networks, organic social, or other channels less crowded by political advertisers helps maintain cost efficiency while CTV and broadcast rates climb.
Political buyers concentrate spend on the broadest, highest-reach placements available. Smaller, hyper-local, or niche ad placements see less political competition, making them a smart place to protect budget efficiency.
Programmatic ad strategies built with flexibility to adapt week-to-week can allow an agency to respond as inventory availability shifts throughout the fall.
CTV and streaming audio buys moved earlier in the calendar (ahead of the heaviest political competition) can avoid the worst of the fourth-quarter price surge entirely. For franchise clients in particular, this is a good moment to evaluate whether national or regional media buys remain the most efficient path, or whether the budget is better spent on more targeted digital channels while political advertisers dominate broadcast and CTV inventory.
Platforms including Meta, Google, YouTube, and TikTok have tightened enforcement around AI disclosure requirements for political and issue-based content, and state-level legislation is adding another layer of complexity on top of platform policy. Synthetic media or deepfakes that aren't properly labeled now face immediate takedowns or platform bans, and “paid for by” disclaimer rules vary significantly from state to state. This is especially important for digital out-of-home and digital video placements, where formatting requirements can be easy to overlook.
For any agency touching election-adjacent creative, even indirectly through issue-based content or advocacy work for a client, this means legal review can't be an afterthought. Non-compliant creative is rejected at the exact moments when timing matters most, and a rejected ad during the final two weeks of a campaign can mean a missed opportunity impossible to recover.
Best practice: build a standing compliance checklist into the creative workflow now, covering platform-specific AI disclosure rules and state disclaimer requirements, rather than reviewing them case-by-case when deadlines are tight. This isn't limited to campaigns and PACs, either. Advocacy groups, ballot initiatives, and some issue-based commercial content can trigger the same requirements, so agencies shouldn't assume these rules only apply to obvious political clients.
Nearly half of all political digital ad budgets will run in the final 30 days of the race, with roughly a quarter executed in just the last 10 days. That kind of concentration demands operational speed. Agencies working directly on campaigns need the ability to move creative from brief to live in hours, not days. They also need real-time pacing oversight to avoid under-spending during fast-moving news cycles that can shift a race's momentum overnight.
Agencies that build flexible approval workflows and pre-cleared creative templates ahead of time will be far better positioned to execute at that pace than those building the process from scratch in October.
This concentration of spend means staffing and account management bandwidth should be planned with October and early November in mind, with tighter check-in and approval schedules built in ahead of time.
As political messaging saturates every channel, consumer skepticism and ad fatigue typically peak in October. For commercial clients running automated or programmatic campaigns, there's also a real risk that ads will land next to divisive political content or misinformation. This brand safety issue can damage a client's reputation, particularly for consumer-facing businesses like dental practices or home services companies that depend on local trust.
Inclusion and exclusion keyword lists reviewed ahead of the fourth quarter help keep programmatic buys away from politically charged content before it becomes a placement problem.
Publisher blacklists updated for the election season keep ads away from contentious political news content and outlets known for divisive coverage, protecting brand reputation during the most saturated weeks of the cycle.
Social media placements and Facebook ad campaigns that are checked closely during peak news weeks catch issues before they become a bigger reputational problem. A quick weekly review in October is far cheaper than damage control in November.
Alerts should be configured to flag placement issues as they happen, rather than relying on end-of-month reporting. This lets an agency catch and correct problems quickly, before a client notices them first.
This is also a good moment to lean into owned content that doesn't compete for the same crowded, fatigued attention as paid media. Strong content marketing can carry a brand's message through a noisy, expensive season, keeping engagement steady while the broader ad landscape is consumed by election coverage.
Navigating a midterm cycle of this scale takes more than a media plan. It takes a team that's actively tracking these shifts and adjusting client strategy in real time. Whether the priority is locking in ad inventory before rates spike, protecting brand safety, or simply making sure the Q4 budget works as hard as possible in a noisy market, a marketing agency in West Palm Beach that understands both the local market and the national ad landscape is a genuine advantage this fall.
Digital Resource is already helping clients plan ahead for the 2026 election season—from adjusting media buys to safeguarding brand reputation to keeping campaigns compliant as disclosure rules tighten. The businesses that start planning now, rather than waiting until the fourth-quarter crunch, will be the ones to spend their budgets efficiently while everyone else scrambles for leftover inventory.
Reach out to our team to talk through what this cycle means for your specific advertising strategy.
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